QUESTION
What assumptions are made regarding census growth, and how are costs estimated?
4:57:23
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91 sec
The Independent Budget Officer's Office updates cost estimates with assumptions on population decline and per diem costs.
- The cost estimates were updated in December, considering a 20% cost reduction by the administration.
- Three scenarios were considered; the middle scenario assumes a decline in the adult population without current data on families with children.
- This lack of data for families with children is noted as an area for future analysis for the executive budget.
- A per diem cost of $320 per household per day was estimated, which is about 20% less than the previous estimate.
- The previous per diem estimate reported was $386.
Justin L. Brannan
4:57:23
And what assumptions is IBM making in terms of census growth?
4:57:29
New entrants since exits?
Sarita Subramanian
4:57:32
Yes.
4:57:33
So IBO updated the estimate in December, so following the November plan, as well as the administration's announcement to reduce costs by 20%.
4:57:45
So our cost estimates, we had 3 different cost estimates that had varying assumptions in terms of the population as well as the per diem cost.
4:57:57
Our middle scenario is what we factored into our gap estimates.
4:58:03
And so that scenario assumes a decline in the adult population based on the data we were able to obtain at that time.
4:58:11
We did not yet have data on the census for families with children, with enough time after requirements were instituted.
4:58:21
So that's something that we plan to look at for the executive budget.
4:58:26
The other per diem estimate differed from the administrations.
4:58:32
So in December, we estimated a per diem of 320 per household per day, and that was based on stated goal that the administration had publicly stated.
4:58:45
And is roughly was roughly about 20% less than the per diem that was most recently reported in October.
4:58:53
386.
4:58:54
Right.
4:58:54
Exactly.
