TESTIMONY
Elyzabeth Gaumer, Chief Research Officer at the NYC Department of Housing Preservation and Development on the 2023 New York City Housing And Vacancy Survey Findings
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14 min
Elyzabeth Gaumer provides an in-depth analysis of the 2023 New York City Housing And Vacancy Survey findings, including the critical housing shortage and the changing income dynamics of New York City households.
- Elyzabeth Gaumer outlines the methodology of collecting data for the survey and emphasizes its scientific accuracy and inclusivity of all housing types across the city.
- The survey reveals a historically low citywide net rental vacancy rate of 1.41%, marking a severe shortage of available housing.
- The median asking rent is $3000, making most available units unaffordable for the typical New Yorker, where the median income of renters is $70,000.
- There has been a growth in the housing supply, but it fails to meet the dramatically increased demand, with a net increase in occupied units by 275,000 or 9%.
- A substantial shift in household incomes is noted, with a half-million more households earning $100,000 or more, leading to a displacement of lower-income households.
Elyzabeth Gaumer
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Good morning.
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Thank you.
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I am Elizabeth Gohmer, Chief Research Officer or at HPD.
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Thank you for the opportunity to testify before the council today.
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My testimony here will present the main finding from the 2023 New York City Housing And Vacancy Survey selected initial findings, including key statistic on the supply of housing, its condition, and the continued need for the regulation of residential rents and evictions.
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Before I present those findings, I would like to take a brief moment to talk about the source of these data and the importance of the survey.
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All of the data presented today as well as those in our report come from the data collected as part of the New York City Housing And Vacancy Survey.
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The 2023 survey is the 19th time the city of New York has conducted the NYCHVS, which is completed about every 3 years going back to 19 65 in partnership with the US Census Bureau.
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It is the longest running housing survey in the country.
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And is a unique source of timely and accurate data on various aspects of our city's housing and resident population that is relied on by policymakers working on topics as varied as poverty, immigration, health, and, of course, housing among others.
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The NYCHVS is a scientific survey distinct from much of the other data available to us.
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It represents every residential unit in the Five boroughs Our sample is randomly drawn from a complete list of all residential addresses in the city to ensure that our data are inclusive of every type of housing in every community.
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At the heart of our data are the interviews completed each cycle with thousands of New Yorkers.
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In 2023, we completed about 10,000 interviews.
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These interviews are conducted by trained census field representatives in multiple languages using a set of questions that are designed and tested to ensure that they collect data in an accurate and neutral way.
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Interview data are combined with other information from administrative records, including the state home is in community renewal rent registration data, code enforcement data, tax information from the New York City Department of Finance, HPD's own production data, and others.
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Our census field team conducts in person observations of every unit.
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And our data are weighted by survey statisticians at the Census Bureau to ensure that the NYCHBS represents all of the 3,700,000 housing units.
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And more than 8,000,000 people who call New York City Home.
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All of the units sampled for the 2021 survey were also part of the 2023 survey, enabling us to examine not only point in time changes between the two surveys, but also look at chained within units and within households.
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The NYCHVF survey methodology follows the best practice used by academic and scientific studies across the country and enables us to report reliable and valid information to all of you enter the New Yorkers represented in our data.
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The 2023 NYCHES was conducted from January through the middle of June in 2023.
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Although the NYCHPS is the most up to date representative information we currently have available, it is important to note that it reflects this point in time.
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The estimates we share today as well as the information provided in the report are based on that time period.
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With that, let's turn to the findings.
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The citywide net rental vacancy rate in 2023 was 1.41%.
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That's one of the lowest vacancy rates recorded since the NYCHVS began and stands in stark contrast to the 4.54% vacancy rate.
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Reported in 2021, which was one of the highest vacancy rates on record.
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There was very limited supply across all price ranges.
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But of those that were available, most would not be affordable to the typical New Yorker.
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The median asking rent for units available for rent in 2023 was $3000.
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A family would have to earn at least a $120,000 to afford that, yet the median income of New York City renters in 2023 70,000.
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We see a continued severe shortage of supply among lower cost rental units.
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The net rental vacancy rate was less than 1% for units renting for less than 16.50 in both 2021 2023.
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Where we have seen significant changes among higher cost units where the net rental vacancy rate has dropped to historically low levels in 23.
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In 23, there were apologies.
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To understand these changes, I'd like to walk through the components of our housing supply.
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With a specific focus on how it changed by comparing point in time estimates between the 2 service.
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In 2020 3, there were 3,700,000 housing units in New York City.
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This is the largest stock recorded since the NYCHVS began in 96 5.
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It represents a net increase of 61,000 housing units or about 2% relative to 2021.
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Which is the sum of both losses and gains.
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This growth in the housing supply continues the trends seen over the last several NYCHPS cycles.
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But despite the increase in supply, it failed to keep pace with increased demand.
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Between 2021 2023, the total number of occupied units increased by 275,000.
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Or 9% relative to just 2 years prior.
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This increase in households was seen for both renters and for owner occupied units.
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This tight housing market meant that more units of every kind were occupied in 2023, including far fewer units available for rent, and far fewer units that were off the market.
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Let's look at the changes in a different way.
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Here, we're looking at the units that were in both the 2021 2023 surveys to assess what happened to them over the last 2 years.
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95% of the units that were occupied in 2021 were also occupied in 2023, though not always by the same household.
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83% of the units that were available for rent in 2021.
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That's as a reminder, those were almost all uniformly very high cost units in 21.
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83% of those were now occupied in 2023.
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And 62% of units that had been off the market in 21 were occupied when we went back and interviewed in 2023.
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The NYCHBS measured housing conditions through self report of the current occupants regarding housing problems.
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In 2021, 14% of occupied units reported 3 or more of the 7 types of problems that we measure.
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The prevalence of housing problems increased again in 2023 to 15%, so a net increase of 1 percentage point.
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Both rent stabilized and market rentals showed similar net changes in the rate of reported problems.
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Between 21 20 3, 8.2 percent fewer rent stabilized units reported having no housing problems in our interview.
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While 7.6% fewer market rents reported no problems.
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The median rent in New York City was 20 it was 1641 in 2023.
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Citywide rents increased by 9% in nominal terms since 2021, generally in line with our historically high inflation during that same period.
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Rent stabilized units increased by 7% in nominal terms with a median rent below citywide.
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The median rent for rent stabilized units was 1500 in 2023.
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In contrast, market rentals increased by 10% in nominal terms with a median rent of $2000.
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When we examine the distribution of household incomes, we see a stark shift upward.
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Between 2123, the median household income in New York City increased to 80,000 from just above 60,021.
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During this period, there was a large net increase in the number of households earning $100,000 or more, up by almost half a1000000 households and a net loss of the lowest income households.
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Using the subset of NYCHBS data that were in both the 2123 surveys, we examined the incomes of renters across different groups.
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The first group in this chart shows renters who stayed in the same home, and were interviewed in both surveys.
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The second group shows renters who moved out after the 2021 survey out of their homes to somewhere else.
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The 3rd group then is the renters who moved into those same units that the 2nd group vacated.
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And the last group on the right here shows the renters who moved into a unit that had been vacant in 2021.
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We found across all these groups that higher income renters moved in where lower income renters moved out.
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And then a full half of the households that moved into units that had been vacant in 21 earned a $100,000 or more.
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Within that group, the median income was a $192,000.
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We separately looked at those who moved to the city since 2021.
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To understand the composition of the newest New Yorkers.
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The vast majority of these, over 95% were renters.
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53% earned a $100,000 or more.
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Overall, their median income was $105,000, And among those earning a $100,000 or more, the newest New Yorkers median income was $200,000.
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The newest New Yorkers were more likely to live alone, 44% compared to 37%, and to be headed by someone who was white.
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52% compared to 32% of renters citywide.
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When we look at apologies.
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For the first time in many cycles of the NYCHBS, the share of renters who were rent burdened or paying more than a third of income toward rent went down from 53% in 21 to 43% in 23.
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This was driven by the larger number of high income households and not by the increasing affordability of the rental stock.
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When we look at rent burden by income, we see stark differences for low income New Yorkers compared to those earning more.
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86% of the lowest income renters who did not benefit from rental assistance were severely rent burdened or paying more than half of their income toward rent.
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An additional 4% were moderately run burdened or paying between 30% 50%.
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This remains unchanged since 2021.
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In contrast, 91% of renters with household incomes of $100,000 or more were in housing that was affordable to them.
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That is they paid less than a third of their income for housing.
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Beginning in 2021, The NYCHVS also collected information about renters who were unable to make rental payments on time.
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In 2023, 13% of renter households reported being late or missing a rent payment at least once in the prior year.
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That was unchanged since 2021.
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We also collected follow-up information on whether any of these 13% of renters were still behind on rent, at the time of the NYCHVS survey.
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34% reported still being in arrears, up from 29% in 2021.
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In summary, the 2023 NYCHVS showed stark changes in the 2 years since our last survey.
0:21:23
The city wide net rental vacancy rate was historically low at 1.41%.
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There was very limited supply across all price ranges.
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But of those that were available, most would not be affordable to the typical New Yorker.
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While the overall supply continued to increase, it was insufficient to keep pace with the large net increase in the number of households.
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The prevalence of housing problems increased across all types of housing back to levels similar to what we had found in the 2011 survey.
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Citywide rents increased at a pace similar to our historically high inflation during this period, up 9% in nominal terms.
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Low income New Yorkers continued to experience high levels of rent burden, and many were unable to make rent payments.
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Perhaps the most dramatic shift was in household incomes.
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Between 21 23, there was almost a half 1000000 more household earning a $100,000 or more with a net loss of the lowest income New Yorkers.
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More than half of the households who moved to New York City, between 2123, earned a $100,000 or more, as were the renters who moved into units that had been vacant in 2021.
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New York City continues to see diverging experience where low and middle income New Yorkers face limited housing choice.
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While more New Yorkers with more purchasing power continue to grow in numbers.
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I'll turn it back now over to the 1st deputy commissioner.