Q&A
Analysis of Fiscal Year 2024 PIT and PTET forecasts
5:40:21
·
108 sec
Council Member Brannan inquires about OMB's forecasts for Personal Income Tax (PIT) and Pass-Through Entity Tax (PTET) for Fiscal Year 2024. Director Jiha expresses concern about the current trends and uncertainties in tax collections.
Key points:
- OMB is seeing an increase in tax refunds, hoping it's a timing issue
- Various factors complicating the forecast: PTET dynamics, EITC expansion
- Jiha emphasizes the need for more data to provide a clearer picture of tax revenue trends
Justin Brannan
5:40:21
So now that we're nearly halfway through May, how are you how is OMB feeling about your f y 24 PIT and PTET forecasts?
Jacques Jiha
5:40:31
Extremely, concerned.
5:40:33
As I said, we are extremely concerned.
5:40:36
We see an increase in refunds.
5:40:38
Okay.
5:40:39
We see a significant increase in refunds.
5:40:41
We're hoping that's a timing issue.
5:40:43
Okay?
5:40:43
Because, if, you know, New York State processes all these tax returns early so that on the back end, we don't have that, you know, that many, return to process, it would be very good for us.
5:40:58
But at the same time, we also have a lot of other things, a lot of other noise.
5:41:03
We have PTT, you know, a pass through tax entity taxes, personal income tax.
5:41:09
So you have that relationship.
5:41:11
You also have last year, we expanded the EITC.
5:41:15
Okay?
5:41:16
So which means more refunds would go, you know, would go out.
5:41:19
So it's a lot of noise.
5:41:20
Right now, I can't tell you for sure, okay, what's gonna happen with the personal income tax.
5:41:26
I'm hoping that this was just a one month noise, that it was just simply the timing of refunds, and then we're gonna come back on track again.
5:41:35
But, again, as I said, I cannot guarantee you that's what's gonna happen.
Justin Brannan
5:41:40
Other than the timing, is there any evidence that the amount of refunds will be higher than you expected?
Jacques Jiha
5:41:48
Again, as I said, there is the PTEQ, and Dynamics with personal income tax and Dynamics.
5:41:55
There is also the EITC issue, credit in expansion of the EITC.
5:42:01
So, again, I I can't tell you at this moment in time.
5:42:04
We'll have to wait for more more information, more data to give you a better picture of what's taking place.
