Q&A
IBO's assumptions and projections for asylum seeker costs
1:40:36
·
89 sec
Sarita Subramanian from IBO explains their assumptions and projections for asylum seeker costs, detailing three different cost scenarios.
- IBO's higher cost scenario projects growth in 2025 and constant population in 2026
- The middle cost scenario factors in a decline in the adult population due to exit policies
- The lower cost scenario projects a decline in both adult and family populations
Sarita Subramanian
1:40:36
Yes.
1:40:37
I can walk you through, our assumptions and how they compare with the administrations.
1:40:43
Great.
1:40:44
So first for IBO's higher cost scenario, similar to the administration, we project growth in the population for 2025 and a constant population in 2026.
1:40:56
The difference is that our, growth rate is based on the past 6 months, that reflects, lower census, population.
1:41:06
So, one key, driver of the difference is that the administration is projecting a summer surge similar to what was seen last summer.
1:41:16
We've been speaking with, providers on the ground that, indicated that that surge last year began by the end of the spring.
1:41:25
So by this point already, and they have not seen such a surge, beginning.
1:41:31
So that is the basis for our lower, projection of the growth in 2025.
1:41:39
For the middle cost scenario, which is what we use in our gap, estimate, that additionally, factors in a decline in the adult population, due to the exit policies, that have been put in place.
1:41:53
And then our lower cost scenario, additionally in addition to the adult population, declining projects a smaller decline in the family population due to the, exit policies.
