AGENCY TESTIMONY
Factors affecting cannabis market estimates and methodology
2:17:46
·
61 sec
The IBO explains the various factors that impact their cannabis market estimates and describes their estimation methodology.
- Factors include the pace of opening licensed dispensaries, consumer preferences, enforcement of unlicensed dispensaries, and product types
- IBO's estimates are based on data from other states with at least 5 years of legal adult-use cannabis sales
- The low-end estimate assumes low per capita sales at a low price, while the high-end assumes higher per capita sales at a high price
Alaina Turnquist
2:17:46
Notably, a variety of factors impact this large range.
2:17:50
Including the pace of opening of licensed cannabis dispensaries, consumer preferences for switching to the legal market, enforcement of unlicensed dispensaries, and consumer preferences for different types of cannabis products.
2:18:02
For example, edibles are higher priced product than typical flower and yield greater tax revenue.
2:18:09
IBO recognizes that this is a wide ranging estimate.
2:18:12
IBO's estimate relies on data from other states looking both at average per capita sales and the price per ounce of cannabis sold.
2:18:19
The low end of our estimate, 33,000,000 assumes a low amount of cannabis sold per capita at a low price, and the high end of our estimate, $200,000,000 assumes a higher amount of cannabis sold per capita at a high price.
2:18:33
IBO's estimates are also based on consumption patterns and prices seen in other states with at least 5 years of legal adult use cannabis sales.
2:18:42
When the rollout of the legal market is completed, IBO would expect to see cannabis sales in the middle of this range.
