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Q&A
Public matching funds budget and projection process
2:26:07
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172 sec
Council Member Brannan inquires about the budget for public matching funds and how the amount is determined. Amanda Melillo explains the process of projecting public matching funds for campaigns.
- $22,200,000 budgeted for public matching funds in FY 2026
- Projections are based on data from past elections, considering factors like open seats and incumbents
- Ranked choice voting has impacted projections by increasing the number of candidates
- Recent elections have seen more competition than anticipated, especially in top-ticket races
Justin Brannan
2:26:07
Okay.
2:26:07
And so how much is budgeted for public matching fund for campaigns next fiscal year?
2:26:20
And how do you determine that amount?
2:26:25
Thank the staff.
Amanda Melillo
2:26:12
So this covers the November.
2:26:15
We have budgeted $22,200,000
2:26:22
That is a great question.
2:26:26
So we always, we come up with a projection far in advance of when elections are happening.
2:26:33
Generally what we do is we look at data from past elections.
2:26:36
We will look at every single seat, whether they are considered open seats, meaning we have no incumbent running for re election, or if we do have an incumbent running for reelection.
2:26:48
And then we will look at the averages of how many candidates tend to run for those seats, whether or not an incumbent is running.
2:26:55
Those draw fewer competitors in those contests.
2:26:59
In addition we look at the averages, amount of public funds and come up with a projection for each election.
2:27:06
What I will tell you the challenge of coming up with that projection is each election cycle has been very different and there have been a lot of changes in the intervening years.
2:27:16
So for example, we came up with a projection for the twenty twenty one citywide election and what we couldn't factor in at the time was ranked choice voting, which does draw a lot more candidates in every single race.
2:27:29
So when we were looking at first of all the entire twenty twenty five citywide election, we came in with a number of assumptions.
2:27:38
And I think it's fair to say that those assumptions were upended as the election cycle proceeded.
2:27:45
So generally we would look at especially citywide races that tend to drive costs.
2:27:51
And in a typical election you would see when you have incumbents running for reelection that they will draw fewer competitors and that we will end up paying out fewer matching funds in those races.
2:28:05
I think that we changed our projection mid year, and this was due to the fact that the top of the ticket was drawing far more in competition than we would have anticipated, absent some of the circumstances that were happening this election year.
2:28:22
And because the top of the ticket was drawing so much competition, we also saw a lot of movement in down ballot races as well.
2:28:30
So because the mayoral contest was more competitive and people were thinking of leaving the seats that they had to run for higher office, We saw that happening all the way down the ballot to comptroller race, to city council races.
2:28:45
And we had amended our projection for the June primary.
2:28:51
So I'm happy to get you more detailed stats after this hearing.
2:28:54
I do not have them at this time but that's generally how we would project our public funds.