Your guide to NYC's public proceedings.
Q&A
Discussion on federal policy changes and potential economic impacts on NYC
3:44:15
·
135 sec
Council Member Brannan inquires about the Comptroller's office's report on Trump's tariffs and potential economic scenarios for the city. The Comptroller and his staff discuss the uncertainty surrounding federal policy changes, the likelihood of different economic scenarios, and the potential impacts on various city taxes.
- Two main scenarios considered: mild recession and no recession
- Property tax expected to be least affected due to internal stabilizers
- Other taxes like Personal Income Tax, hotel tax, and business taxes would be more impacted
Justin Brannan
3:44:15
I want to dive right into the report that your office published back in April taking Trump's tariffs seriously, you explored three scenarios of federal policy changes I just want to dive into a little bit.
3:44:31
Out of the three scenarios, which do you believe is the most likely for the country, and which do believe is the most likely for the city?
Brad Lander
3:44:38
I'll say a couple of words and then turn it over to Francesco and Christa who worked on this report.
3:44:43
Obviously, I mean, it's, you know, like we live in such an era of uncertainty.
3:44:46
Even yesterday with court rulings, the tariffs are on, the tariffs are off.
3:44:50
How do you decide which is the most likely to come in here and present?
3:44:54
So what we chose to do in this report and today is present you two scenarios, mild recession and no recession.
3:45:03
In the report we issued, we thought mild recession was most likely because the tariffs that seem likely to remain regardless will really have economic impacts.
3:45:15
But it just feels like a roll of the dice, And that's why we really urge putting the resources in reserves.
3:45:21
We don't know what the courts are going to rule.
3:45:22
We don't know what Trump is going to do in relationship to China.
3:45:25
It might be a tariff scenario that causes a recession, and perhaps the tariffs won't happen, and he'll claim it was some kind of win and roll them back, and the economy will be better.
3:45:36
We'll still be glad we have the reserves in that scenario.
3:45:39
And I'll turn it over.
Justin Brannan
3:45:40
Which taxes do you think would be most acutely effective?
Francesco Brindisi
3:45:46
Under either scenario?
3:45:48
Yeah.
3:45:48
I I guess I couldn't have said it better than the controller about what's going to happen.
3:45:54
I think we've taken out the deeper recession scenario from this report.
3:46:00
We consider that risk lower than a recession.
3:46:04
It's hard to pick between the two slow growth versus mild recession at this point.
3:46:10
But the first taxes that will be affected are everything but the property tax.
3:46:16
We know that the property tax has got internal stabilizers and averaging.
3:46:20
So that's not the one that reflects current economic conditions.
Justin Brannan
3:46:24
But all
Francesco Brindisi
3:46:24
of the others, PIT, hotel, business taxes would be affected.