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AGENCY TESTIMONY
Economic scenarios and revenue forecasts
3:36:49
·
46 sec
Comptroller Lander presents two economic scenarios and corresponding revenue forecasts prepared by his office.
- In the no-recession scenario, city revenues are projected to exceed OMB's estimates
- In a mild recession scenario, tax revenues would fall significantly before rebounding
- Both scenarios include recommendations for deposits into the rainy day fund
- Budget gaps are projected to grow in both scenarios, with larger gaps in the recession scenario
Brad Lander
3:36:49
In either economic scenario, my office estimates that budget gaps will be larger than those presented by OMB.
3:36:55
In the no recession scenario, we project ending FY '25 with a gap of 1,700,000,000.0, growing to 5,700,000,000.0 in '26 and 8 point 8,000,000,000 in FY '29.
3:37:07
That's largely from higher spending estimates, including the deposits into the rainy day fund and general reserve.
3:37:14
In the recession scenario, the FY '25 gap would increase modestly by $112,000,000 to $1,870,000,000 If we then had rainy day fund withdrawals of $1,600,000,000 in the subsequent two years, the gaps would be 6,400,000,000.0 and 9,300,000,000.0 in 2627.