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Q&A
IBO's business tax revenue projections and economic indicators
5:35:13
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70 sec
Council Member Justin Brannan discusses the Independent Budget Office's (IBO) business tax revenue projections, which are lower than the administration's forecast.
- IBO projects $190 million less in business tax revenues this year and $275 million less in the upcoming fiscal year compared to the administration's forecast.
- Despite recent economic shifts, IBO feels comfortable with their current forecast, which predicts substantially slowed growth but not a recession.
- IBO acknowledges the rapidly changing economic landscape and commits to continually reassessing their projections.
Justin Brannan
5:35:13
The business tax forecast.
5:35:15
IBO is projecting weaker business tax revenues in the administration about $190,000,000 less this year and $275,000,000 less in the upcoming fiscal year.
5:35:25
Your report mentions that your forecast is based on April 2025 indicators.
5:35:31
However, economic conditions have certainly shifted since April with this tariff chaos and so called trade deals and tax changes.
5:35:41
How different would your forecast look if you were to use current economic indicators as we head into June?
Sarita Subramanian
5:35:48
I would say that based on the indicators that have been released since our forecast, we feel relatively comfortable with where we're at right now, which is that growth would slow pretty substantially, although we did not forecast recession.
5:36:07
And so I would say that likely would be where we would forecast if we were to repeat it now.
5:36:15
But that is something that we're continuing to look at.
5:36:18
And obviously, as Louisa said, news changes hour to hour, so we will factor all that Can