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Q&A
IBO's employment growth projections compared to OMB
5:32:14
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84 sec
Council Member Justin Brannan inquires about the Independent Budget Office's (IBO) employment growth projections, which are lower than those of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). IBO representatives explain their more conservative estimates.
- IBO projects 32,000 more jobs in 2025 and 52,000 in 2026, compared to OMB's 58,000 and 79,000 respectively.
- Factors influencing IBO's projections include recent data showing a decline in tourism and potential election year optimism in OMB's numbers.
- IBO notes that job growth projections are slowing substantially across all sectors.
Justin Brannan
5:32:14
Thank you very much.
5:32:18
As stated in your analysis of the financial plan, IBO expects weaker employment growth in the city compared to OMB's projections.
5:32:27
So while OMB forecasts about 58,000 more jobs in 2025, fourth quarter to fourth quarter, IBO expects an anemic 32,000 more jobs.
5:32:42
OMB forecasts 79,000 more jobs in 2026 while IBO expects only 52,000.
5:32:48
Your office explains its weaker employment forecast is partially based on recent data showing a sharp decline in tourism, especially international.
5:32:58
Are there any other factors that would suggest weaker job growth than what's been projected by OMB?
Louisa Chafee
5:33:06
Well it's the last hearing of the day and we're trying to not be too giddy.
5:33:11
I'm sure you're feeling the same way.
5:33:13
But we do we have internally considered whether there might not be an element of election year optimism involved in some of those numbers.
Justin Brannan
5:33:20
Sure.
Sarita Subramanian
5:33:21
And I would I would add that in general, I think the projections for job growth are, you know, slowing substantially across all sectors.
5:33:31
So, but in particular I think that's one area where our projection differs from what the administration is assuming.