Your guide to NYC's public proceedings.
TESTIMONY
Testimony by Lee Drutman, Senior Fellow at New America, on the impact of primary reforms on voter turnout
2:02:21
·
5 min
Lee Drutman, Senior Fellow at New America, testifies that changing primary rules (open, jungle, blanket, nonpartisan) has a statistically zero effect on voter turnout, based on a review of numerous studies.
He argues that primary elections, regardless of rules, engage the already engaged, and only exciting campaigns and competitive elections significantly boost participation, citing California's top-two system as an example where turnout did not improve. Drutman emphasizes that political parties are crucial for mobilizing voters and that independent voters can easily register with a party if they wish to participate in its primary, or they can form new parties, especially with fusion voting available in NYC.
- Changing primary election rules (e.g., to open or nonpartisan) generally has no significant impact on overall voter turnout.
- Primary elections tend to engage those already politically active; higher turnout is driven by competitive races and engaging candidates.
- Political parties are effective institutions for mobilizing voters.
- Independent voters can choose to register with a party to vote in its primary or organize new parties.
Lee Drutman
2:02:21
Well, wonderful to be with you as a native New Yorker.
2:02:25
I I was born in Queens, although I live in Washington DC now.
2:02:29
I'm delighted to have this opportunity.
2:02:32
I am a senior fellow at New America, Washington DC think tank, also a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, and also a huge electoral reform nerd.
2:02:43
It's kinda my thing, so I'm really tickled that maybe some of this knowledge might actually be useful to you all.
2:02:50
I kinda make it my business to try to read, like, as many studies as I can, which, you know, is probably now in the hundreds.
2:02:59
You know, basically, a nerdy political scientist who just is kind of obsessed with this.
2:03:05
So don't rely on any single study.
2:03:08
It may shock you, but some of the research out there has an agenda behind it.
2:03:12
So look at the big picture.
2:03:13
So you are interested in whether some form of open primary can increase voter turnout.
2:03:21
Here here's my first point.
2:03:23
I'm sorry to disappoint you, but looking across all the studies, the effects are pretty weak.
2:03:30
Basically, statistically, zero.
2:03:33
And this is true whether you call it an open primary, jungle primary, blanket, or nonpartisan primary, zero.
2:03:40
Zero effect on, turnout.
2:03:43
So, basically, changing who can vote in primaries does almost nothing to change who actually votes.
2:03:49
This is my my, summary across many studies.
2:03:53
And, actually, the reason here is quite simple.
2:03:57
Primary elections, no matter what the rules are, they engage the already engaged.
2:04:01
No reform changes that.
2:04:04
The only thing that actually engages more people is exciting campaigns and inspiring candidates and competitive elections.
2:04:12
So we're hear a bit about California, and that that's a good, case study to see what happens when you change the primaries.
2:04:20
In in 2012, they moved to this top two system, and, turnout before they did that was actually a little bit higher than after they did that.
2:04:32
And I don't know if I can, share my screen here.
2:04:36
Am I allowed to do that?
2:04:39
I'm sending a request to see if I can share my screen just to show you one one quick table here.
Jennifer Ng
2:04:47
I
Sharon Greenberger
2:04:47
don't know that we can do that, but you
Lee Drutman
2:04:48
can Well, I'll just I'll just tell you the statistics then.
2:04:52
In the era, 1998 to 2010 before California reform, the midterm primary turnout was 29.8% on average.
2:05:03
After the reform, the the next 12 elections, it was down to 28.5%.
2:05:08
So, actually, it was lower after they passed the reform.
2:05:12
Now number of reasons for that.
2:05:14
Also, there are folks who think, well, if we do this top two thing or nonpartisan primaries, there will be more moderation.
2:05:21
Again, you know, preponderance of the studies, no effect.
2:05:25
There are a few studies that show a positive effect.
2:05:28
Most show no effect, so I I I wouldn't bet on that.
2:05:33
Now so point number one, no real effect of changing primary rules.
2:05:39
Now if we are concerned, about engaging and inspiring voters, we have to understand something about politics, which is that politics is about organizing.
2:05:49
Politics is a team sport.
2:05:51
Politics is about getting the people who agree with you together and to show up.
2:05:55
And political parties are the most effective institutions for mobilizing and engaging voters.
2:06:03
Strong political parties make for strong democracies.
2:06:07
This is really political science one zero one, although it may seem counterintuitive to some folks who who like independence.
2:06:16
And, yes, there are a lot of voters in New York who choose to register as independence.
2:06:20
Remember, this is a choice.
2:06:23
And they think that that means that they should be able to vote in the Democratic primary.
2:06:27
But this is the thing that I really don't understand.
2:06:30
They actually can.
2:06:32
All they have to do is change their registration to be a Democrat.
2:06:36
It's free.
2:06:37
It's easy.
2:06:38
Anybody can do it.
2:06:39
Folks really feel strongly about independence from democrats or republicans.
2:06:45
There is another option in New York City.
2:06:47
They can organize, start a new political party to compete in the general election.
2:06:51
New York City actually has a long tradition of new parties and changing parties, thanks in large part to fusion voting.
2:06:58
So general elections could absolutely use more competition, and that's when the voters mostly show up.
2:07:05
So if we care about voter engagement, then maybe we should have more parties competing in the general election.
2:07:11
We should have citywide proportional representation.
2:07:14
And if we want young voters, same day registration is the best way to do that.
Sharon Greenberger
2:07:18
So Thank you so much.
2:07:19
I'm gonna ask you to wrap up.
Lee Drutman
2:07:25
I I mean, there are other people who've gone for, like, a lot of minutes here.
2:07:28
I'm just I I'm sorry.
2:07:29
I'm delivering maybe the news that you don't wanna hear.
Sharon Greenberger
2:07:31
We're gonna move on.
2:07:33
Thank you so much.
2:07:33
If you have additional testimony, you can certainly send it.
Lee Drutman
2:07:36
Okay.
2:07:37
I'm I'm sorry.
2:07:37
I'm delivering the news that you don't wanna hear, but this
Barika Williams
2:07:39
is No.
Sharon Greenberger
2:07:40
It has nothing.
2:07:40
It's you you're overtime.
2:07:42
That's why.
2:07:43
Thank you so much.