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Q&A
Chair Richard R. Buery Jr. and Professor Richard Barton discuss voter engagement in scenarios with same-party general election candidates
1:03:48
·
143 sec
Chair Richard R. Buery Jr. asks Professor Richard Barton how to assess voter engagement if an open primary leads to two Democratic candidates in a general election (in a blue district), potentially causing some Republican voters not to turn out.
Professor Barton explains that in typical partisan primary systems, winners are often decided in low-turnout primaries. All-candidate primaries make participation more meaningful in both primary and general elections.
He notes that even with roll-off from Republican voters in a two-Democrat general election, those Republicans (and independents) who do vote can become a pivotal bloc.
- Barton clarifies that a top-four system, as opposed to top-two, is less likely to produce this same-party general election dynamic and thus the roll-off issue is less pertinent.
Richard R. Buery Jr.
1:03:48
Actually, we have a quick question for you as well, mister Barton, just to clarify something.
1:03:52
You described open primaries, increasing turnout in the primary election, potentially a neutral effect in the general election or a modest increase if the primary leads to two Democratic candidates in the Blue District because the Republicans don't aren't motivated to vote.
1:04:13
How should we think about that in terms of voter engagement?
1:04:15
Did that still, in your opinion, reflect increased voter engagement because the two general candidates more reflect the majority of electorate?
1:04:23
How should we think about that that we sort of balance as we're trying to aim for increased voter participation engagement?
Richard Barton
1:04:31
So I was very good about following my initial three minutes, but
Sean Campion
1:04:34
I have a lot to
Richard Barton
1:04:34
say on this.
1:04:35
So I'm gonna you're gonna have to cut me off here.
1:04:37
So the, I think the way that we should think about this is first in a typical partisan primary system, as other, others have mentioned, most of the time it is in very low turnout partisan primary elections where the winner is ultimately decided because general elections are entirely uncompetitive.
1:04:57
And so the meaningfulness of participation both in the primary and the general in all Canada primary is much greater.
1:05:06
Now even in a top so in a in a top two, when you have two d's, say, a blue district in California, you see roll off among Republican voters there.
1:05:15
Now counter like, counterintuitively, it is in those very counter elections when those Republican voters who are turning out a lower rate actually have the biggest impact because they are often the pivotal voting block, Republicans and independents, between those two Democrats.
1:05:29
I've made this argument many times to voters who are boxed out of a general election, and I will say they might find the logic persuasive, but emotionally they're not interested in that.
1:05:41
So would also say that in a top four system, you don't have the same kind of problem.
1:05:47
And the studies that I'm referencing with drop, with the roll off are based on the top two.
1:05:52
So in a top four system, which is the I understand the commission is also considering, this is not the same kind of problem because you're likely to get a DNNR advancing to the general election.
Richard R. Buery Jr.
1:06:07
Thank you so much.
1:06:08
Appreciate it.
1:06:09
That wasn't too long.
Richard Barton
1:06:10
Right.
1:06:10
Thank you.