Your guide to NYC's public proceedings.
TESTIMONY
Testimony by Dr. Oscar Pocasangre on the limited impact of open primaries on turnout
2:15:03
·
3 min
Oscar Pocasangre, a senior data analyst and political scientist, testifies on the potential impacts of open primaries.
He states that the political science evidence is clear: open primaries have very little impact on voter participation, with at best marginal improvements.
He also warns that in a city like New York, top-two primaries are likely to result in many "copartisan" general elections (e.g., Democrat vs. Democrat), which are associated with a substantial increase in voter roll-off for down-ballot races.
- Pocasangre argues there is no evidence that the proposed system (a jungle RCV primary with a top-two general election) increases turnout because the model is not widely used.
- Research on similar top-two systems shows they have little to no effect on overall voter participation.
- He warns of increased "voter roll-off," where voters skip down-ballot races in general elections featuring two candidates from the same party.
- He suggests that without systematic research in the NYC context, the reform could unintentionally reduce the electoral influence of minority groups.
Oscar Pocasangre
2:15:03
Hi.
2:15:04
Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity to testify.
2:15:07
My name is Oscar Pocasangre.
2:15:09
I held a p hold a PhD in political science from Colombia and currently work as a senior data analyst for the Think Tank New America, where I research electoral systems and electoral reform.
2:15:21
I'll discuss two questions related to open primaries, particularly with RCV and the top two general election.
2:15:28
And one is whether they would increase turnout, and two, whether it would negatively impact underrepresented communities.
2:15:35
First, to the best of my knowledge, there is no evidence that the alternative proposed a jungle RCV primary followed by a top two general election affects turnout because it's not a widely used model.
2:15:46
One of the main goals of RCV is to avoid a run a runoff altogether.
2:15:49
That's why it's called instant runoff.
2:15:51
So any evidence based recommendation necessarily has to extrapolate from similar but not the same model.
2:15:58
From research on open primaries with the top two, the political science evidence is clear.
2:16:03
Open primaries have very little impact on voter participation.
2:16:07
The data show at best marginal improvements in turnout in the first round primary and mixed effects in second round general elections.
2:16:14
The evidence shows that when top two results in copartisan elections, when the two candidates are from the same party in the general, there is no associated change in overall turnout, and there is a substantial increase in voter roll off when voters vote for the top of the ticket but then don't vote for the down ballot races.
2:16:31
One study found that from 2012 to 2016, 17% of general elections in California were copartisan.
2:16:38
Considering the partisan composition in New York City, co copartisan elections are likely to be common.
2:16:43
Turnout remains unchanged because there are two effects working against each other.
2:16:46
Partisans from excluded parties stay home, and while open primaries expand the electorate to unaffiliate voters, unaffiliate voters tend not to vote at the same rate as partisan voters.
2:16:57
This is part of why primary reforms have marginal effects despite the good intentions of reformers.
2:17:02
Most people who would vote are in fact already voting.
2:17:05
Further, it's unclear that opening up primaries would encourage more people to vote.
2:17:09
Consider that many voters registered with parties do not vote even though they can.
2:17:13
Why would that be different for voters not registered with the party?
2:17:17
All this evidence suggests that opening up primaries will not have a transformative change.
2:17:22
The problem is that reforming primaries does not address the root problem that there is no generating party competition in the general election, which would motivate parties to do a better job at connecting with voters and offering something that might bring an affiliate of voters into the fold.
2:17:37
These findings also raise important questions regarding impacts on under underrepresented communities.
2:17:43
Which communities more likely to have higher roll off rates?
2:17:46
What community have lower turnout levels as a result of partisan elections?
2:17:50
It's alarming that there's no systematic research on these questions in the New York City context, especially if the main objective of the reform is increased turnout and to do no harm among underrepresented communities.
2:18:00
Particularly because research on RCB in New York has shown that ballot exhaustion is higher in areas with higher concentration of racial minorities, it is worrisome that an additional reform could end up reducing the electric influence of minority groups.
2:18:13
Thank you.
Richard R. Buery Jr.
2:18:14
Thank you so much.